It's been a whirlwind week for U.S. gamers, marked by a series of highs and lows. The excitement kicked off with the much-anticipated full reveal of the Nintendo Switch 2, showcasing its impressive features and games. However, the joy was short-lived as fans expressed disappointment over the system's hefty $450 price tag and the $80 cost for Mario Kart Tour. The roller coaster continued when Nintendo announced a delay in pre-orders, citing the need to evaluate the impact of the Trump Administration's sudden, sweeping tariffs on global trade.
We've previously discussed the reasons behind the Nintendo Switch 2's pricing and the potential effects of these new tariffs on the gaming industry. Now, the burning question on everyone's mind is: what will Nintendo do next? Will the Nintendo Switch 2's price increase when pre-orders finally open?
Typically, to answer such pressing questions about the future of video games, I consult with a panel of expert industry analysts. While they can't predict the future with certainty, they usually provide a consensus based on data and trends. This week alone, I've already turned to them twice for insights. However, this time, for the first time since I began these consultations, every analyst I spoke with was stumped. Their responses were filled with guesses and caveats, emphasizing the unprecedented chaos and unpredictability of the current situation. No one can accurately forecast the actions of Nintendo, the Trump Administration, or any other stakeholders in the near future.
With this in mind, here's a summary of the insights shared by the analysts I interviewed:
Sky-High Switch
The analysts were divided in their predictions. Dr. Serkan Toto, CEO of Kantan Games, initially thought it was too late for Nintendo to raise prices after announcing them. However, the delay has led him to believe that Nintendo may have no choice but to increase prices. He anticipates that Nintendo will run simulations and then announce price hikes for the system, games, and accessories. "I hope I am wrong, but if these sky-high tariffs persist, they leave Nintendo no choice. Would you be surprised to see the Switch 2 hit $500 for the base model? I wouldn't," he said. Toto also questioned Nintendo's timing, suggesting they should have waited for the U.S. to resolve the tariff issues before setting the price.
Mat Piscatella, senior analyst at Circana, also predicts a general increase in game prices, including those from Nintendo. He emphasized the unprecedented nature of the tariffs, which caught everyone, including Nintendo, off guard. "Every reasonable and responsible business that relies on international supply chains will be reevaluating its U.S. consumer pricing at this point. They have to," he stated. Piscatella pointed out that the U.S. might join other regions with historically higher game prices due to these tariffs.
Manu Rosier, director of market analysis at Newzoo, believes that hardware prices will rise due to the tariffs, while software might be less affected thanks to the growing dominance of digital distribution. "If a 20% tariff—or any substantial increase—were to be introduced, it’s unlikely that companies like Nintendo would absorb the additional cost by cutting into their margins. In such cases, the burden could shift to consumers in the form of higher retail prices," he explained.
Holding the Line
On the other side, Joost van Dreunen, NYU Stern professor and author of SuperJoost Playlist, believes Nintendo will try to avoid a price increase on the Switch 2. He suggests that the volatility from the Trump tariffs was already factored into the $449.99 pricing. "Nintendo, like other manufacturers, has restructured its supply chain to mitigate such geopolitical risks. Historically, Nintendo has aimed for a launch price around the $400 mark, adjusted for inflation, suggesting that the current price already reflects an anticipation of potential economic challenges," he said. However, he acknowledges that the unpredictable nature of these tariffs could force Nintendo to reassess if the trade situation worsens.
Piers Harding-Rolls, games researcher at Ampere Analysis, agrees that Nintendo will strive to maintain the announced price to avoid consumer backlash. "The extent of the tariffs and its impact on Vietnamese exports are really bad news for Nintendo. The company is now in between a rock and a hard place, having already announced the launch price," he said. He suggests that Nintendo might delay any price changes until at least 2026, hoping for a resolution to the tariff situation. However, he admits that everything is on the table now, and a price change could impact the brand and consumer perception at launch.
Living in Unhinged Times
Rhys Elliott, games analyst at Alinea Analytics, predicts higher prices for both Nintendo hardware and software due to the tariffs. He also referenced his earlier comments about Nintendo's strategy of offering cheaper digital editions in certain markets to encourage digital purchases. "Nintendo might have wanted to do something similar in the U.S., but the tariff situation is so chaotic that Nintendo was in 'wait and see' mode," he said. Elliott painted a grim picture of the broader impact of the tariffs on the gaming industry, aligning with warnings from the Entertainment Software Association. He criticized the tariffs for weakening the economy and harming consumers, stating, "These extreme tariffs will also be bad for consumers in the U.S. but are positive for the U.S. administration’s populist façade. Policies that lead to higher prices for everyday people amid a cost-of-living crisis are deplorable."
Nintendo Switch 2 System and Accessories Gallery
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