Despite not yet being released, DFC Intelligence projects Nintendo's Switch 2 to dominate next-gen console sales. Their 2024 Video Game Market Report forecasts impressive sales figures: 15-17 million units in 2025 and over 80 million by 2028. This makes the Switch 2 the "clear winner," according to the report.
Projected Market Leadership
The report positions Nintendo as the console market leader, citing the Switch 2's anticipated 2025 release and limited initial competition as key factors. This early market entry, coupled with high demand, could lead to production challenges for Nintendo.
Limited Competition
While Sony and Microsoft are reportedly developing handheld consoles, these projects appear to be in earlier stages of development. DFC Intelligence anticipates new consoles from these companies by 2028, leaving a significant window for the Switch 2 to maintain its market dominance. The report suggests only one of these post-Switch 2 consoles will achieve substantial success, potentially a hypothetical "PS6," leveraging PlayStation's established player base and strong intellectual properties.
Switch's Continued Success
The Switch's enduring popularity is underscored by Circana's data, showing its lifetime US sales surpassing those of the PlayStation 2. Despite a 3% year-over-year sales decline, the Switch holds the second position in all-time US video game hardware sales, trailing only the Nintendo DS.
Positive Industry Outlook
DFC Intelligence paints a positive picture for the video game industry, projecting healthy growth through the end of the decade after a recent slump. 2025 is anticipated to be a particularly strong year, driven by new releases like the Switch 2 and Grand Theft Auto VI. The report also highlights the expanding gaming audience, projected to exceed 4 billion players by 2027, fueled by the rising popularity of mobile gaming and esports.
